Gitmo not closing: prelude for landslide win in ‘12?
Rather predictably, Obama administration is not serious about closing Gitmo:
Struggled? Yes, that’s one way of putting it. After Craig damaged US-British relations by sticking four Gitmo detainees on a plane to Bermuda, and after he dumped less than a dozen more on the island nation of Palau, the pickings for release became mighty slim. Even with the US sending five 9/11 plotters to New York City to face a criminal trial, the Washington Post estimates that 75 prisoners remain that simply cannot be released, sent elsewhere, or tried normally — a situation Obama’s critics predicted all along.
This is going to eventually come back bite Obama. He is disillusioning his own base by breaking every promise made during the campaign: in fact, the ones that he actually does want to keep (universal health care) he doesn't have the power to push through, because this is a center-right country and president is not a king, and the ones he can keep using his executive powers (closing Gitmo, bringing troops home from Afghanistan and Iraq) he was never serious about keeping.
This is developing into a landslide scenario for a conservative candidate in 2012, whoever that may be. Conservatives are happy that Obama isn't keeping his promises (perhaps with the exception of some libertarians on Afghanistan-Iraq wars and Gitmo, but when it comes down to it, domestic policies will matter far more to libertarians). Independents who thought Obama was a moderate have fled from him as they found out more. And finally, liberals will be disappointed with Obama and will simply stay home on the election day.
Unless Obama can change direction drastically on foreign policy (and he probably won't be able to, even with that Nobel Peace prize), his only hope for the second term will be the economy—he might be able to win back some of the independents back, if economy improves enough (just pray that Obama and Pelosi do not raise taxes enough to kill the recovery). But even then, it would be an uphill battle—he will no longer have the enthusiastic netroots support, and the resurgent conservative grassroots movements will be opposing him.